Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Josh Hawley has a low chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Josh Hawley winning the Republican presidential nomination, with a market probability of 0.65% for a YES outcome. In contrast, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher likelihood at 3.65%, but both metrics reflect skepticism about his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced, indicating a consensus on his low chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Hawley.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than the AI probability.
• 3 Confidence in the market is rated at 75/100, suggesting moderate reliability.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.
• 5 Market appears to be liquid, reflecting active participant engagement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.