Will Juan Carlos Medrano win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Juan Carlos Medrano has a very low chance of winning the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Juan Carlos Medrano winning the upcoming election, with a 99.95% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of his victory, suggesting limited support or momentum for his candidacy at this time.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.55%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 114 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).