Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Oviedo in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.5% likelihood that Juan Daniel Oviedo will not win the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with a low 0.5% chance of a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, assigning a 96.5% probability to the NO outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome for Oviedo.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low chances for YES.
• 3 Current probabilities suggest a stable political environment for the opposition.
• 4 Time until the election is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting active participation.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).