Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Juan Pablo Velasco has a low chance of winning the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market indicates a 10.5% probability of Juan Pablo Velasco winning, while Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 15%. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100 and a time to expiry of 114 hours, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting skepticism about his candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Velasco's campaign may need to overcome substantial public skepticism.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is accurately reflecting probabilities.
• 4 Time pressure could influence last-minute changes in voter sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity in the market indicates moderate interest in Velasco's candidacy.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).