Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton is unlikely to be confirmed as Fed Chair based on current market probabilities.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Judy Shelton's confirmation as Fed Chair, with a 98.35% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Shelton's confirmation.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a slight divergence in expectations.
• 3 Historical trends indicate low confirmation rates for controversial Fed Chair nominees.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing structure.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with over 5000 hours until the decision is finalized.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.