Will Julapun Amornvivat be the next prime minister of Thailand?

Market strongly favors NO for Julapun Amornvivat as next Thai prime minister.

The prediction market indicates a 0% probability for Julapun Amornvivat becoming the next prime minister, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 3% probability to a YES outcome, suggesting that current conditions heavily favor alternative candidates.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for NO at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood for YES.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal arbitrage opportunities.
• 4 Confidence level at 80/100 indicates strong conviction in the current outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry of 6846 hours allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.