Will Julian Menendez be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Julian Menendez is unlikely to win the 2026 Toulouse mayoral election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Julian Menendez becoming the next mayor of Toulouse, with a 99.35% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, assigning a 94.85% probability to the NO outcome, indicating low confidence in his candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Menendez's chances appear low based on existing probabilities.
• 3 Market pricing suggests a balanced view with a slight edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time remaining until the election may influence future sentiment.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.