Will Julio César Tórrez win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Julio César Tórrez is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Julio César Tórrez winning the upcoming gubernatorial election, with a market probability of only 0.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a 4.55% probability for a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Tórrez.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest minimal support for his candidacy.
• 3 The edge indicates that the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, adding urgency to any potential changes.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).