Will Kasey Carpenter win the GA-14 special election?

Kasey Carpenter is highly unlikely to win the GA-14 special election.

The prediction market shows a 0.05% probability for Carpenter's victory, indicating strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus that he is not favored to win. Given the edge score of 3, the market appears to be fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Carpenter's victory.
• 2 The low probability suggests minimal confidence in Carpenter's campaign.
• 3 Current political dynamics heavily favor his opponent.
• 4 Liquidity in the market indicates limited interest in betting on Carpenter.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.