Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Kate Abughazaleh is highly unlikely to be the Democratic nominee for IL-09.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Kate Abughazaleh being the Democratic nominee for IL-09, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of her nomination, indicating that market participants do not anticipate significant changes in her candidacy status.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Abughazaleh's nomination.
• 2 Market probability shows little room for her candidacy to gain traction.
• 3 The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher but still low chance for 'YES'.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 5 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates a strong consensus among participants.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.