Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?

Low probability for Fujimori and Nieto to advance in the runoff.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advancing, with a 96.65% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for YES. This indicates a general expectation that other candidates are favored to progress.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Fujimori and Nieto face strong competition from other candidates.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low chances for their advancement.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent sentiment.
• 5 Time remaining until expiry may influence last-minute shifts.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).