Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Low probability for Loeffler leaving the Trump Cabinet before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Kelly Loeffler will not leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027, with a 98.25% probability for 'NO'. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 93.75%, suggesting a consensus on her stability in the position.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Loeffler remaining in her position.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI indicates a perceived stability in her role.
• 3 Historical trends suggest cabinet members typically serve longer terms unless under duress.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting confidence in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of th