Will Kevin Stitt replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

Kevin Stitt is highly unlikely to replace Markwayne Mullin as Senator from Oklahoma.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Kevin Stitt replacing Markwayne Mullin, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of a change in this political position.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.05%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market belief.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 5357 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h