Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

High probability suggests Kevin Warsh will likely be confirmed as Fed Chair.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 94.10% probability for Warsh's confirmation, indicating significant confidence among participants. The Pulse AI also aligns closely, predicting a 90.1% chance, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of -4. With 5666 hours until expiry, there is ample time for potential shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors confirmation of Warsh.
• 2 Market probability is closely aligned with AI predictions.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 85/100.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments to impact the market.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.