Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?

The market strongly favors Kim Jong Un remaining in power until 2027.

Current market probabilities indicate a high confidence that Kim Jong Un will not be ousted before 2027, with a 99.25% likelihood of a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a lower probability of 5.25% for a 'YES' outcome, suggesting a significant consensus on his continued leadership.

• 1 Market shows strong confidence in Kim Jong Un's leadership stability.
• 2 Current sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 3 Historical context suggests low turnover in North Korean leadership.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains long.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.