Will Kina Collins be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Kina Collins has a low chance of being the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The market shows a strong preference against Kina Collins as the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with an 88% probability of 'NO'. Despite a slight undervaluation of the 'YES' side, the overall sentiment remains skeptical about her candidacy.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 88%, indicating low confidence in Collins' nomination.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 18%, indicating potential undervaluation.
• 3 The edge of 6 points suggests some market inefficiency in the 'YES' side.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty in the market's assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is 123 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.