Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Market shows a slight lean towards Kristi Noem leaving before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a 55.30% probability that Kristi Noem will leave the Trump administration before 2027, suggesting a slight inclination towards her departure. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 52.3%, indicating a consensus on uncertainty regarding her tenure. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of over 7000 hours, the market reflects a balanced view on her future.

• 1 Current market probability indicates a close call on Noem's departure.
• 2 The confidence level suggests moderate certainty among participants.
• 3 Market edge of -3 implies fair pricing with no significant misalignment.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments to influence outcomes.
• 5 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment, reinforcing uncertainty.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.