Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Kristi Noem has a low probability of winning the 2028 Republican nomination.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Kristi Noem winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with a 99.25% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of her candidacy succeeding. This suggests that current market participants do not view her as a leading contender for the nomination.

• 1 Market probability indicates overwhelming skepticism about Noem's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher but still low chance of her nomination.
• 3 The edge of 3 implies the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates strong belief in the current market assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.