Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Larry Hogan has a low chance of winning the 2026 Maryland GOP primary.

The prediction market indicates a 4.5% probability of Larry Hogan winning the Republican primary, which aligns closely with the AI's assessment of 9%. With a majority of participants betting against his success, the market appears to be fairly priced. The confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 95.5%.
• 2 AI probability slightly higher at 9%, indicating some optimism.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 2120 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.