Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Lars Boje Mathiesen is unlikely to be the next Danish prime minister post-2026 elections.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Lars Boje Mathiesen becoming the next prime minister, with a 99.45% probability of NO. The AI probability also reflects skepticism, indicating a low likelihood of his election. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Mathiesen.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests limited confidence in his candidacy.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, indicating consensus.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.