Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Latvia is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current probabilities.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Latvia winning the televote, with a 99.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of victory, estimating only a 5% chance for 'YES', indicating a general lack of confidence in Latvia's prospects.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 95% for 'NO'.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 55/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1318 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.