Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Laura Fine is highly unlikely to be the Democratic nominee for IL-09.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Laura Fine being the nominee, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with an edge of 1.5 and a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability indicates overwhelming skepticism about Fine's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher but still low chance for Fine.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is likely well-balanced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80 suggests a strong belief in current market pricing.
• 5 No time to expiry is noted, which may affect market volatility.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.