Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Lebanese Forces have a 38% chance of winning the most seats in the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a 38% probability for the Lebanese Forces to secure the most seats in the upcoming parliamentary election, while the majority (62%) believes they will not. The market is currently assessed as fairly priced, suggesting balanced sentiment among participants regarding the party's electoral prospects.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors 'NO' at 62%.
• 2 The Lebanese Forces' probability remains unchanged at 38%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time until the election is significant at 1968 hours.
• 5 No edge detected, indicating a balanced market assessment.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding t