Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Lisa Murkowski has a low chance of winning the 2026 Alaska governor election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Lisa Murkowski will not win the 2026 Alaska governor election, with a 93.85% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a slightly higher chance of victory at 10.65%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Murkowski's victory.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly more favorable view for Murkowski.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.