Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

There's a nearly even chance Lori Chavez-DeRemer will leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027.

The prediction market shows a slight edge towards Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaving the Cabinet, with a 52% probability for 'YES'. The Pulse AI probability is closely aligned at 49% for 'YES', indicating a balanced outlook and uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Market probability is closely contested with a slight lean towards 'YES'.
• 2 Pulse AI reflects a nearly even split, suggesting uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of -3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate belief in current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of th