Will Luciano Negrete win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Luciano Negrete has a low chance of winning the 2026 mayoral election in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Luciano Negrete will not win the upcoming mayoral election, with a market probability of 99.75% for 'NO'. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a 95.25% chance of losing, indicating a consensus on his unfavorable position in the race.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Negrete's election chances.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 161 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).