Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Luis Gilberto Murillo is unlikely to win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Luis Gilberto Murillo winning the first round, with a market probability of only 0.50% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a mere 5% probability to his chances, suggesting that current conditions heavily favor other candidates.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Murillo.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest low confidence in his candidacy.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Time until the election may affect market dynamics as it approaches.
• 5 Political developments could rapidly alter the current outlook.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).