Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Luis Gilberto Murillo is unlikely to win the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Luis Gilberto Murillo winning the upcoming election, with a market probability of only 0.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI probability also reflects skepticism, indicating a 3.15% chance of victory. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The low probability suggests minimal support for Murillo's candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends indicate incumbents or established politicians often dominate elections.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential changes in the political landscape.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).