Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?

Market indicates low probability of Lula leaving leadership before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stepping down before 2027, with a 99.3% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current political stability is expected to continue.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors Lula remaining in power.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating stability.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Edge analysis shows the market is fairly priced at this time.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.