Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Lula has an 80.5% chance of qualifying for Brazil's presidential runoff.

The market indicates a strong probability of 80.5% for Lula's qualification, suggesting significant confidence among participants. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 75%, indicating some caution. The edge of -5.5 for the NO side suggests that it may be undervalued compared to the YES side.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Lula's qualification.
• 2 The difference between market and AI probabilities indicates some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge suggests potential mispricing in the NO side.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate market stability.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for significant developments to impact the market.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).