Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Luxembourg is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current probabilities.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of Luxembourg winning the televote at 1.65%, with a stronger consensus against it at 98.35%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher chance at 6.15%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a stable consensus among bettors.
• 3 Historical performance of Luxembourg in Eurovision may influence perceptions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public opinion.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.