Will Magali Brunel be the next mayor of Toulon?

Magali Brunel has a very low chance of becoming the next mayor of Toulon.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Magali Brunel being the next mayor of Toulon, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.05%, indicating some uncertainty or potential for change in public opinion.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.05%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty.

Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).