Will MAIS win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

MAIS is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against MAIS winning the most seats, with a 99.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also indicates a low likelihood for MAIS, though slightly higher at 1.55%. This suggests a general skepticism about MAIS's electoral prospects.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low confidence for MAIS at 1.55%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about MAIS's electoral strength.
• 5 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates a strong consensus among participants.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).