Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Malachy Steenson has a low chance of winning the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market indicates a 1.30% probability of Malachy Steenson winning the by-election, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.8%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, reflecting skepticism about his chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time until the election allows for potential changes in dynamics.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).