Will Malena Adrada be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Malena Adrada has a very low probability of becoming the next mayor of Toulouse.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% chance of Malena Adrada winning the mayoral election, with a strong consensus against her candidacy. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05%, suggesting that while there is some minimal support, it is significantly outweighed by skepticism.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Current sentiment suggests limited support for Adrada's candidacy.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.