Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?

Manfred Reyes Villa is highly favored to win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election.

The market shows a strong probability of 96.90% for Reyes Villa's victory, indicating significant confidence in his candidacy. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 91.4%, highlighting a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 5.5 points. With 247 hours until the election, there is still time for shifts in public sentiment or unforeseen events.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Reyes Villa's victory.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued based on market probabilities.
• 3 Pulse AI indicates a slightly lower confidence than market odds.
• 4 247 hours remain for potential shifts in the political landscape.
• 5 Market liquidity may impact the ability to place large bets.

The Cochabamba mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).