Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Manuel Saavedra is favored to win the 2026 mayoral election with a 90.4% probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of Manuel Saavedra winning the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election, with a market probability of 90.40%. The Pulse AI also supports this outlook, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 84.9%, suggesting a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 5.5 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Saavedra's victory.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued, indicating potential market inefficiencies.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry of 185 hours allows for potential developments to influence the market.
• 5 The market reflects a strong consensus but remains sensitive to emerging political dynamics.

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).