Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Mario Vizcarra is unlikely to win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Mario Vizcarra will not win the upcoming election, with a 98.75% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of victory for Vizcarra, suggesting limited support for his candidacy at this time.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment against Vizcarra's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates slightly more optimism but still favors a NO outcome.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 800 hours allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).