Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Marisol Pérez Tello has a low probability of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Marisol Pérez Tello winning the upcoming election, with a 99.75% probability of a NO outcome. The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 4.75%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 A 4.5 edge indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).