Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Brnovich as the Republican nominee.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.7% likelihood that Mark Brnovich will not be the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a low 0.30% chance of a YES outcome. The Pulse AI analysis further supports this, showing a 95.2% probability for NO, suggesting a consensus against his nomination.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome for Brnovich.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a much lower probability for YES than the market.
• 3 Current sentiment strongly favors alternative candidates.
• 4 The edge suggests that the market is accurately priced based on available data.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential changes but current trends are stable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.