Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Mark Kelly has a low chance of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mark Kelly winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a 98.05% probability of NO. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, indicating a general lack of confidence in his candidacy despite a slightly higher AI estimate.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Kelly.
• 2 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.
• 5 AI probability is slightly higher than market probability, indicating some divergence.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.