Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Mary Fitzpatrick is unlikely to win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mary Fitzpatrick winning the by-election, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, assigning a 95.35% probability to the NO outcome, indicating a general lack of confidence in her candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Fitzpatrick's chances are seen as very low by both market and AI predictions.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with a low edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential changes in dynamics.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).