Will Matt Barton win the GA-14 special election?

Matt Barton has a very low chance of winning the GA-14 special election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of Matt Barton winning, with a strong consensus against him. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance at 4.55%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in favor of a NO outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in the market.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.