Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

The market strongly favors that Matt Gaetz will not be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.85% chance that Matt Gaetz will not be the Republican nominee, with a low 0.15% chance for a yes. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong skepticism towards his candidacy, suggesting that significant factors are at play that diminish his likelihood of nomination.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 3790 hours allows for potential changes in the political landscape.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.