Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Market indicates low chance of Matt Gress being the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Matt Gress as the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a 99.5% probability of 'NO.' This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which estimates a 95% chance of him not securing the nomination, suggesting a well-established sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Gress's nomination.
• 2 The market probability closely aligns with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 4 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5, suggesting stability in current odds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.