Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Matt Heilala is unlikely to win the 2026 Alaska governor election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Matt Heilala winning the election, with a probability of only 0.70% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI further reinforces this view, estimating a 5.2% chance of victory, indicating a significant gap between market sentiment and AI predictions. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Heilala's chances are perceived as very low by both market and AI.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with the AI prediction.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate belief in current probabilities.
• 5 Time until election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.