Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

Market strongly favors Markwayne Mullin remaining Senator over Matt Pinnell.

The prediction market shows a decisive 100% probability against Matt Pinnell replacing Markwayne Mullin as Senator. The AI model suggests a small chance of 4.5% for Pinnell, indicating a significant divergence in sentiment between the market and AI predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors Mullin.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slight chance for Pinnell, indicating uncertainty.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h