Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Mauricio Cardenas has a very low chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of Mauricio Cardenas winning, while Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.05%. Overall, the market consensus is that he is unlikely to succeed, with a high confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Cardenas's political positioning may not resonate with voters.
• 4 Liquidity in this market is low, indicating limited trading activity.
• 5 Time until the election is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).