Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Mauricio Quezada is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of 0.05% for Quezada's victory, with a consensus leaning heavily towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a 4.55% chance of winning, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Quezada's chances are perceived as very low by both market and AI predictions.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is accurately reflecting the situation.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 114 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).