Will Melissa Conyears Ervin be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Melissa Conyears Ervin has a 61.35% chance to be the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The market indicates a 61.35% probability that Melissa Conyears Ervin will be the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with a Pulse AI probability slightly lower at 55.85%. The edge suggests that the NO side may be undervalued by 5.5 points, indicating potential for a shift in sentiment as the expiry approaches in 24 hours.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Conyears Ervin as the nominee.
• 2 The probability gap indicates potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time pressure of 24 hours may influence last-minute changes.
• 5 Liquidity context suggests active trading around this event.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.